2025. negyedik negyedév: Hírek a gyártási segédanyagok és csomagolóanyagok területéről

Az ERA Group negyedéves elemzése a piaci helyzetről, a beszerzésre gyakorolt lehetséges hatásokról, valamint az ellátási lánc tervezéséről.

Tariffs dominate the outlook: shorter buys and itemised pricing are critical

Tariffs are the headline risk into late Q4. The White House set 10% tariffs on lumber and 25% tariffs on cabinets/vanities and upholstered furniture effective Oct 14; with higher rates possible in 2026; and signaled 25% tariffs on medium- and heavy-duty trucks starting Nov 1. These moves raise the odds of supplier pass-throughs; particularly where parts/content sourcing is global and exclusions are limited.^1;2;3;4 Companies are already telegraphing that margin pressure will push them to itemise tariff adders; expect larger firms to lead this charge.⁵ Ocean freight is benign with global container rates near $1;650–$1;690 per 40-foot container in mid-October;6 U.S. truckload spot rates are up only a few cents month over month;⁷ and diesel prices are easing versus September ⁸ — all consistent with stable delivered costs into year-end. The practical implication for purchasing is to lean on shorter buying cycles (60-90 days); request index-tied formulas for all pricing movements; and require HTS-level proof for any tariff surcharges. Where tariffs touch upstream inputs (furniture/wood; trucks/parts); ask vendors to separate base price versus tariff versus freight/fuel so you can negotiate each lever independently. The current freight backdrop gives buyers room to hold the line on price adders. KEY TAKEAWAYS: Policy is the swing factor; not logistics—keep buys short; demand itemised tariff pass-throughs; and use today’s softer freight and stable rates to lock index-tied holds into early 2026 and possibly beyond.

Hullámkarton

Box demand remains muted heading into Q4 as U.S. manufacturing stays contracted.⁹ The American Forest and Paper Association reports containerboard production down 5% year over year in Q2;¹⁰ which resulted in cautious shipments into late summer. U.S. OCC (old corrugated containers) prices held in August;¹¹ and national truckload spot rates were flat through late September.¹² Structurally; PCA (Packaging Corporation of America) closed on its purchase of Greif’s U.S. containerboard assets in September; which results in a regional and competition shift to watch.¹³ Analysts see signs the down-cycle is easing after about 3.9M tons (or 9.5%) of 2025 capacity cuts; but expect only a gradual recovery. Forecasts still point to flat linerboard through the first half of 2026; with a modest late 2026 uptick (about $40/mt) as operating rates improve.^14;15 [caption id="attachment_13192" align="aligncenter" width="457"]

Chart Data: Pulp and Paper Weekly RSI Index[/caption] KEY TAKEAWAYS: Expect stable-to-soft corrugated pricing next quarter; buy in shorter tranches and press for index-tied pricing (PPW/RISI); scrub freight/fuel adders; and run multi-mill/alternate-plant bids while demand stays subdued. Lastly; consider planning for modest late 2026 firming.

Fűrészáru/raklapok

The U.S. wood pallet and lumber markets look steady short term; but the setup is cautious. There was a light increase in pricing at the beginning of October as buyers worked through inventory that was front-loaded ahead of the October 14 Section 232 tariffs (10% on softwood lumber; 25% on certain wood products). Softer housing demand and affordability constraints tempered fresh orders; while domestic mills increased shipments; and Canadian exports stayed constrained by duties.16 The September newsletter from ePallet.com echoes that mills reducing operating rates signify “weak market conditions and economic uncertainty; which could tighten supply later in the year.”¹⁷ [caption id="attachment_13193" align="aligncenter" width="516"]

Chart Data: TradingEconomics.com[/caption] KEY TAKEAWAYS: It’s more important than ever to plan ahead for lumber and pallet purchasing. Ever-changing tariffs; as well as the usual geographical and meteorological risks during this season; can lead to regional price swings.Treat Q4 pricing as rangebound with pockets of firmness; buy in 60–90-day tranches with dual-region coverage; require itemised tariff pass-throughs; and lean on recycled/repair to capture best value. Lastly; bear in mind that Q4 is considered “retail season” with the run-up to holiday shopping; which typically increases demand and pricing.

Vegyi anyagok és gázok

Pricing remains generally steady on the industrial side: producer‐price gauges show industrial chemicals easing a touch since spring while industrial gas manufacturing is holding near recent levels; consistent with soft pull-through but firm contract discipline from suppliers.^18;19 Recent market wraps echo a calm feedstock backdrop (ethane steady; propane easing; ethylene spot in the high-teens/low-20s ¢/lb) and no broad U.S. outages—helpful for delivered costs into Q4.^20;21 Policy noise is present; but near-term tariff passthrough risk looks contained for covered inputs: USTR extended 178 China Section 301 exclusions through Nov 29; 2025; so keep surcharge claims tied to specific HTS lines and effective dates. ^22;23 Meanwhile; large industrial-gas producers continue to stress price discipline even as volumes wobble in some regions—another reason to anchor formulas to transparent indices rather than blanket surcharges. Operationally; the U.S. asset base is running without systemic tightness; and logistics are behaving; combined with stable feedstocks; that points to a buyer-friendly window to tidy up terms for early 2026.^24;25 [caption id="attachment_13195" align="aligncenter" width="544"]

Chart Data: Producer Price Index by Commodity: Chemicals and Allied Products: Industrial Chemicals[/caption] KEY TAKEAWAYS: Expect stable-to-soft industrial chemical/gas costs next quarter; buy in 60–90-day tranches; tie pricing to Henry Hub/NGL; PPI; or other recognized indices where relevant; and challenge tariff/surcharge adders with the current USTR exclusion timeline while maintaining dual-source coverage to capture spot concessions.

Műanyagok

Resin tone is calm heading into Q4: PE and PP\ are largely flat; with producers struggling to push increases as demand stays soft; PVC fell again in September on weak construction pull-through. ^26;27;28 Ferguson’s early-/mid-October wraps echo the same setup—full inventories; discounted exports; and spot ranges steady—and note that recent U.S. plant upsets (e.g.; Dow Freeport; CPChem Cedar Bayou; Formosa Point Comfort) didn’t translate into broad tightness.^29;30 PET is the outlier. Tariffs are set to push PET resin prices higher in October; reversing late-summer softness; Plastics News flags “unexpected tariff impacts” as the primary driver.³¹ Broader tariff policy remains fluid (reciprocal rates and carveouts by country/product); so expect PET; and any recycled-content specs tied to import flows; to feel more pressure than commodity PE/PP.³² Bottom line for purchasing: treat commodity resins as range-bound and bid actively—keep cycles short; lean on export parity and multisupplier quotes; and tie formulas to transparent markers. For PET; validate any tariff pass-throughs to the exact HTS line and effective date; and keep USMCA/domestic options warmed up in case imports thin. [caption id="attachment_13196" align="aligncenter" width="539"]

Chart Data: TradingEconomics.com[/caption] KEY TAKEAWAY: Expect stable-to-soft PE/PP/PVC next quarter while PET faces tariff-driven firmness; buy in 60–90-day tranches; run multi-supplier bids (including recycled options where feasible); and index-tie pricing—requiring written; itemised tariff pass-throughs on PET to capture best value.

Fémek

U.S. sheet steel prices are holding in a narrow range; with typical HRC lead times around 4–6 weeks; CRC and galvanized generally track HRC with their usual spreads.^33;34 Stainless adders ticked higher: for example; North American Stainless raised its fuel surcharge to 32%; effective October 1; so audit surcharges separately from the base price.³⁵ On policy; Washington in August broadened steel/aluminum tariff coverage to 407 additional product categories at 50% (downstream fabricated items included); verify any surcharges map to those HTS lines.³⁶ The EU is pressing the U.S. to scale back metals-content tariffs; but nothing has changed yet for U.S. buyers.³⁷ [caption id="attachment_13197" align="aligncenter" width="478"]

Chart Data: BusinessAnalytiq[/caption] KEY TAKEAWAY: Treat sheet steel (HRC/CRC/galvanized) as range-bound with 4-6 week lead times; buy short and wide (multi-mill bids); unbundle and audit surcharges (especially stainless fuel adders); and require HTS-level proof for any tariff pass-throughs before accepting price moves.

Források:

^{(1) Reuters — new wood product tariffs effective Oct 14; (2) Trucking Dive — How Oct 1 truck tariffs might play out for the industry; (3) Manufacturing Dive – Trump Truck Tariffs Coming Nov 1; (4) Reuters — announcement of steep tariffs on drugs; heavy trucks; and more; (5) ICIS – INTERVIEW: US firms expected to pass through tariffs to preserve margins; (6) Drewry WCI; (7) DAT — September spot rates up 1–3¢/mile into mid-October; (8) EIA — U.S. retail diesel; (9) September 2025 ISM Manufacturing PMI Report; (10) American Forest & Paper Association Monthly Report - Aug 2025; (11) Fastmarkets US export bulk grade prices steady in August;(12) DAT Freight & Analytics; (13) Packaging Dive; Sept 2; 2025; (14) Corrugated comeback? Fiber’s yearslong slide could be easing; (15) RaboResearch North America Containerboard Quarterly Q3-2025; (16) Trading Economics -- Lumber; (17) ePallet – Pallet Market Update; September 2025; (18) BLS/FRED PPI—Industrial Chemicals; Aug 2025; (19) BLS/FRED PPI—Industrial Gas Manufacturing; Aug 2025; (20) Ferguson Weekly Newsletter – Week of October 6; 2025; (21) Ferguson Weekly Newsletter – Week of October 13; 2025; (22) USTR Extends Certain Exclusions from China Section 301 Tariffs; (23) Federal Register notice (Aug 27; 2025); (24) Ferguson Weekly Newsletter – Week of October 6; 2025; (25) Ferguson Weekly Newsletter – Week of October 13; 2025; (26) Plastics News livestream recap — resin pricing trend flat-to-down for September (PE; PP; PVC); (27) Plastics News — PP prices flat in Sept; October drop likely on lower PGP; (28) Plastics News — PVC resin prices fall for second straight month (Sept); (29) Ferguson Weekly Newsletter – Week of October 6; 2025; (30) Ferguson Weekly Newsletter – Week of October 13; 2025; (31) Plastics News — “Tariffs to push PET resin prices higher in October;” Oct 2; 2025.; (32) Reuters Tariff Watch; (33) Reuters—U.S. HRC futures quote page (Oct 17; 2025); (34) TradingEconomics—HRC steel price snapshot (Oct 16; 2025); (35) North American Stainless—fuel surcharge to 32% effective Oct 1; 2025; (36) Reuters—U.S. expands 50% steel/aluminum tariffs to 407 categories (Aug 19; 2025); (37) Reuters—EU presses U.S. to drop metals-content tariffs (Oct 14; 2025)Reuters — new wood product tariffs effective Oct 14; (2) Trucking Dive — How Oct 1 truck tariffs might play out for the industry; (3) Manufacturing Dive – Trump Truck Tariffs Coming Nov 1; (4) Reuters — announcement of steep tariffs on drugs; heavy trucks; and more; (5) ICIS – INTERVIEW: US firms expected to pass through tariffs to preserve margins; (6) Drewry WCI; (7) DAT — September spot rates up 1–3¢/mile into mid-October; (8) EIA — U.S. retail diesel; (9) September 2025 ISM Manufacturing PMI Report; (10) American Forest & Paper Association Monthly Report - Aug 2025; (11) Fastmarkets US export bulk grade prices steady in August;(12) DAT Freight & Analytics; (13) Packaging Dive; Sept 2; 2025; (14) Corrugated comeback? Fiber’s yearslong slide could be easing; (15) RaboResearch North America Containerboard Quarterly Q3-2025; (16) Trading Economics -- Lumber; (17) ePallet – Pallet Market Update; September 2025; (18) BLS/FRED PPI—Industrial Chemicals; Aug 2025; (19) BLS/FRED PPI—Industrial Gas Manufacturing; Aug 2025; (20) Ferguson Weekly Newsletter – Week of October 6; 2025; (21) Ferguson Weekly Newsletter – Week of October 13; 2025; (22) USTR Extends Certain Exclusions from China Section 301 Tariffs; (23) Federal Register notice (Aug 27; 2025); (24) Ferguson Weekly Newsletter – Week of October 6; 2025; (25) Ferguson Weekly Newsletter – Week of October 13; 2025; (26) Plastics News livestream recap — resin pricing trend flat-to-down for September (PE; PP; PVC); (27) Plastics News — PP prices flat in Sept; October drop likely on lower PGP; (28) Plastics News — PVC resin prices fall for second straight month (Sept); (29) Ferguson Weekly Newsletter – Week of October 6; 2025; (30) Ferguson Weekly Newsletter – Week of October 13; 2025; (31) Plastics News — “Tariffs to push PET resin prices higher in October;” Oct 2; 2025.; (32) Reuters Tariff Watch; (33) Reuters—U.S. HRC futures quote page (Oct 17; 2025); (34) TradingEconomics—HRC steel price snapshot (Oct 16; 2025); (35) North American Stainless—fuel surcharge to 32% effective Oct 1; 2025; (36) Reuters—U.S. expands 50% steel/aluminum tariffs to 407 categories (Aug 19; 2025); (37) Reuters—EU presses U.S. to drop metals-content tariffs (Oct 14; 2025)}