Guatemala continues to face challenges in its trade balance as its imports far exceed its exports. In 2024; the country reached a trade deficit of approximately US$17.9 billion; reflecting its high dependence on imported goods. While exports showed modest growth; imports increased significantly; raising concerns about the sustainability of Guatemalan foreign trade in the medium and long term.
Evolution of Exports and Imports
According to recent data; the country's total exports reached US$14;588.3 million; representing a 2.8% increase compared to 2023. Among the most exported products are clothing; edible fats and oils; fresh fruit; plastic materials; and paper and cardboard manufactures; which together
accounted for 25% of total exports (1).
In contrast; imports amounted to US$32;489.2 million; with 75% of goods coming from just five main markets: the United States; Mexico; Central America; China; and the European Union (2). This high degree of concentration in trading partners highlights the country's vulnerability to changes in trade policies or economic fluctuations in these regions.
Products with the Highest Growth in Exports and Imports
Exports
• Clothing: Key sector with a significant recovery in the US market.
• Fresh; dried or frozen fruit: Expansion into new international markets.
• Plastic materials and paper and cardboard products: Growing demand in the
region.
Main Export Products and Their Growth
The products that led Guatemalan exports in 2024 were:
• Clothing: accounted for 11.5% of total exports; totalling US$1;677.5 million.
• Bananas: Represented 7.5% of exports; with a value of US$1;090.5 million.
• Coffee: Contributed 6.5% of the total; reaching US$944.2 million.
• Cardamom: Totalled US$867.3 million; equivalent to 5.9% of exports.
• Sugar: Contributed US$665.8 million; representing 4.6% of total exports.
These five products together accounted for 36% of the country's total exports.
Imports
Imports
• Fuels and lubricants: These represent one of the country's main imports.
• Vehicles and machinery: Increased demand for industrial and technological equipment.
• Electronic and telecommunications products: High growth due to the boom in digital commerce and the expansion of technological networks (3).
Main Import Products and Their Growth
In terms of imports; Guatemala recorded a total of US$32;489.2 million in 2024; with the following products standing out:
• Fuels and lubricants: These accounted for 22.1% of total imports; totalling
US$7;180.1 million.
• Capital goods: These accounted for 18.3% of imports; with a value of
US$5;946.5 million.
• Chemical products: These contributed 13.7% of the total; reaching US$4;451.9 million.
• Construction materials: Totalled US$2;924.3 million; equivalent to 9% of
imports.
• Food and beverages: Contributed US$2;599.4 million; representing
8% of total imports.
These five products together accounted for 71.1% of the country's total imports
country.
SWOT analysis for 2025
Given this outlook; it is essential to assess the strengths; opportunities; weaknesses; and threats that could influence the country's trade balance in 2025.
Strengths
• Diversification of exportable supply in agricultural products; manufactured goods; and textiles.
• Consolidated trade relations with strategic partners such as the United States and Central America.
Opportunities
• Opening of new markets; such as the case of Guatemalan avocados in the United States (4).
• Expansion of digital trade; allowing greater access to international products and markets.
Weaknesses
• Persistent trade deficit due to high dependence on imports.
• Concentration of imports in a few countries; creating vulnerability to changes in tariff policies.
Threats
• International macroeconomic risks such as global inflation and crises in financial markets.
• International competition with countries offering similar products at lower costs.
Strategic Recommendations
I. Market diversification: Guatemala should strengthen trade agreements with emerging countries to reduce its dependence on traditional partners.
II. Promotion of value-added exports: Boost the production of manufactured goods that generate higher revenues and competitiveness.
III. Cost optimisation and operational efficiency: Guatemalan companies should seek expert advice on cost reduction and process optimisation to improve their profitability in an uncertain economic environment.
Conclusion
Moderate export growth and a sharp increase in imports pose a challenge for Guatemala in terms of trade sustainability. Faced with a possible decline in revenue and a growing trade deficit; it is crucial for companies to continuously review their costs and expenses to maintain profitability and
improve their competitiveness.
Guatemala's trade performance in 2024 shows positive signs; but it also highlights the importance of implementing strategies that strengthen market and product diversification; as well as improving the competitiveness of key sectors to ensure sustainable growth in the future.
In this regard; firms specialising in cost optimisation and operational efficiency; such as ERA Group; can play a key role in helping companies identify savings opportunities; improve their financial structure and ensure sustainable growth in the coming years.
Sources:
(1) Prensa Libre; "Guatemala's exports exceed US$14.5 billion in
2024;" 2024.
(2) Prensa Libre; "Guatemala imported more than US$32 billion in 2024;" 2024.
(3) Prensa Libre; "Electronic products; computers and telephones; the most
in 2024;" 2024.
(4) AP News; "United States authorises importation of Guatemalan avocados;"
2024.
