2024年第4四半期：製造業、消耗品・包装関連ニュース

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トラヴィス・カントレル

パトリック・ガー

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コンテンツ

ERAグループによる、市場動向、調達への潜在的な影響、およびサプライチェーン計画に関する四半期ごとの分析。

General supply chain observations & updates

Supply chain & freight

波形

The fiber packaging industry is seeing flat pricing in October 2024; with sales volumes slowly recovering from the "cardboard box recession." While Cascades announced a price increase for linerboard; other major producers like International Paper and Smurfit Westrock haven't followed; making the increase largely unsuccessful. Analysts expect prices to remain flat for the rest of 2024; with potential increases in March 2025. Demand levels are anticipated to hold steady until after the U.S. election in November; though inflation and uncertainty may impact the market further.⁷

KEY TAKEAWAY: The corrugated market has stabilized since the most recent increase in June. Stay the course with your suppliers; and make sure you have contractual documents in place for how future price adjustments are treated.

木材・パレット

Lumber prices remained close to $530 per thousand board feet despite weakened demand from higher U.S. mortgage rates and a decline in housing permits and starts. Production remains low; with U.S. output down 3.2% compared to last year. Mill closures; especially by Canfor; have tightened supply; pushing prices up despite softening demand. Economic expectations have shifted as higher rates limit housing activity; tempering hopes for a "soft landing" in the U.S. economy.⁸ However; interest rates are now expected to decline further in 2024 and 2025; which may revive U.S. housing activity. This; in turn; could impact demand and prices for lumber. Pallet prices for 2024 have stabilized after significant fluctuations during the previous years; with prices softening and reaching a potential low. The main drivers affecting pallet costs include changes in lumber prices; labour challenges; and transportation costs. While there is cautious optimism for a modest recovery; external factors like extreme weather and geopolitical tensions could still impact prices. Additionally; softwood pallets are becoming more common due to their better availability and cost compared to hardwood.⁹

KEY TAKEAWAY: Despite market drivers potentially indicating otherwise; we are quickly approaching the holidays; also affectionately known as “Amazon Season.” Pallet demand will spike between now and early January; and prices will likely follow suit. Working with your suppliers to ensure you will have adequate supply is paramount; while also working with them to ensure they are not unfairly taking advantage of you with respect to price.

化学品・ガス

For Q4 2024; industrial chemical prices are facing mixed trends due to several global factors. While demand for certain chemicals has softened due to economic conditions; such as high inflation and tight monetary policies; others—particularly those tied to sectors like energy transition and sustainable technologies—are seeing steady growth. Despite challenges; the outlook for chemical pricing remains cautiously optimistic; with expectations of recovery in 2025 as demand normalizes and inflationary pressures ease.¹⁰

KEY TAKEAWAY: The market looks like it could be on the rise starting in early 2025. If you have not previously worked with your suppliers to ensure they are treating you fairly; as well as using indices for price movements; now is the time to do so.

プラスチック

While polypropylene (PP) prices continue to decrease; the downward trend may be coming to an end. Polyethylene (PE) prices remained steady; but export prices are slipping. Railcars drove the bulk of PE transactions; and buyers are focusing on well-priced offers. Inventory levels for both PE and PP rose in September; though there was little interest in PP exports. The market may see an end to the price declines if October reductions are significant enough.^12;13 The index for plastic bags and pouches continued to rise through September; and we are seeing these increases reflected in plastics pricing.

KEY TAKEAWAY: If you are a buyer of polyethylene or polypropylene; now is a good time to purchase in a declining market. For packaging supplies such as plastic bags; film; and pouches; having supply agreements in place to protect you in the increasing market is paramount.

金属

For Q4 2024; Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) and Cold Rolled Coil (CRC) steel prices are projected to remain relatively stable; though there could be minor downward pressure. Market sentiment indicates a “status quo” attitude for HRC; with limited price movement expected through the remainder of the year; though election outcomes and mill outages could introduce volatility. The spread between CRC and HRC remains steady; and lead times for CRC remain around six to seven weeks. These prices reflect the impact of stable demand; global economic conditions; and potential geopolitical risks; with the possibility of slight price declines but no major disruptions forecasted for the immediate future.¹⁴

KEY TAKEAWAY: While not necessarily reflected in the index values; there is no end in sight to the supply constraints for copper and brass. Securing any needed supply should be a very high priority. The steel market is uncertain; therefore; as always; maintaining or improving your supplier relationships is a great practice.