The other day; while walking my dog; I saw a father with two children on bicycles — a girl of about 7 and a younger boy; perhaps 5 — standing on a corner; arguing about which way to go.
The girl wanted to go east; the boy wanted to go south. Since they couldn't agree; the father suggested a coin toss. She accepted immediately; he hesitated; but eventually gave in.
They played three times:
Paper vs rock: the girl won.
Rock vs scissors: she won again.
Scissors vs paper: third victory
Luck? Perhaps. But it seemed to me that the girl; with a couple of years' advantage and many "games" under her belt; anticipated her brother's choices. She wasn't certain; but she had an intuition based on experience.
And I thought about how this resembles what we do at ERA Group: you never have all the information; but with the backing of having seen patterns repeat themselves in hundreds of projects; it's not guesswork; it's informed estimation.
Sometimes; knowing the game and the players makes all the difference.
Has it ever happened to you that; when others think it was luck; you know that it's actually because you've seen a version of that game before?
